Global Surface Warming: Worst-Case Projections (IPCC)
WorldPhysical EnvironmentProjection of surface temperatures for the 2081–2100 period using the RCP8.5 model, which integrates change in annual mean surface temperature, change in annual mean precipitation, in percentages, and change in average sea level relative to the 1986–2005 period. RCP8.5 represents future change in atmospheric temperature if there is no reduction in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 2010 and 2100.
UN IPCCA map shows global surface warming worst-case projections in degrees Celsius. Extensive warming is depicted in the Arctic and northern hemisphere regions. Moderate warming covers the equatorial and southern regions.
Warming of up to 3 degrees Celsius (light to medium peach) will occur over most of Earth’s oceans, except in the central and north Pacific, along the continental shelves, in the Mediterranean Sea, and the ocean around Antarctica, where it will warm even more between 3 and 5 degrees (peach to light red). Extreme warming from 5 to 7.5 degrees (red to dark red) and higher will occur over the Arctic Ocean. On the continents, warming of between 3 and 4 degrees (light red) will occur in the interior of these landmasses, with more intense warming, of 4 to 5 degrees (medium red), occurring in the midlatitudes of interior North America and Eurasia, the western Sahara, the Arabian Peninsula, and southwestern Asia. The most warming over land, ranging from about 5 to 7.5 degrees (dark to very dark red), will occur in northeastern Canada from around Hudson Bay northward, and across Eurasia from northern Scandinavia across Russia to far eastern Siberia and the Pacific. Warming of up to 1.5 degrees (light peach) will occur in the Southern Antarctic Circle below New Zealand, some areas in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and a small region in the North Atlantic Ocean below Iceland.