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Global Surface Warming: Best-Case Projections

WorldPhysical Environment

Projection of surface temperatures for the 2081–2100 period using the RCP2.6 model, which integrates change in annual mean surface temperature, change in annual mean precipitation, in percentages, and change in average sea level relative to the 1986–2005 period. RCP2.6 represents future change in atmospheric temperature if cumulative greenhouse gas emissions are reduced 70 percent between 2010 and 2100.

UN IPCC

A map shows global surface warming best-case projections in degrees Celsius. Warmer areas are seen in the Arctic and parts of the northern hemisphere. Cooler and stable temperature regions dominate the equatorial and southern regions. 

Regions with the lowest temperature increases, between 0 degrees Celsius to 0.5 degrees Celsius, are shown in blue. These regions are primarily found in the Southern Ocean, parts of the Antarctic Circle, and scattered areas in the South Pacific Ocean. Regions with temperature increases from 0.5 degrees Celsius to 1 degrees Celsius are shown in blue-green. This includes almost all portions of the oceans, including the countries Chile, and all central American countries except Mexico, the Southern part of India, Sri Lanka, Indonesia Vietnam, Guam, Papua New Guinea, United Kingdom, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Iceland. Light green represents regions expected to warm by 1 degree Celsius to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This category includes parts of the United States, Mexico, most of the South American countries including, Colombia, Peru, Brazil, and Paraguay, most portions of Europe, along with almost all African countries, Middle Eastern countries, China, Mongolia, Nepal, Northern part of the India, Japan, Australia, and some art in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific Ocean. Yellow indicates regions where temperatures are projected to rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius to 2 degrees Celsius. These areas include Canada, parts of Russia, and parts of Northern Europe. Orange shows regions where temperatures are projected to rise by 2 degrees Celsius to 3 degrees Celsius, primarily in Northern Russia, some portions of Eastern Russia, and the Northern Arctic Circle above Canada. Red, representing the highest projected increases of 3 degrees Celsius to 4 degrees Celsius (red), is predominantly found in the northernmost regions above Russia.

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Global Surface Warming: Best-Case Projections

Producing Oil Fields In North America

0.5 to 1.0

1.0 to 1.5

1.5 to 2.0

2.0 to 3.0

Producing Oil Fields In North America

Utah
42.2%57.8%
Yukon
89.2%10.8%
Northwest Territories
58.9%41.1%
District of Columbia
100%
Florida
80.2%19.8%
Idaho
18.3%81.7%
New Hampshire
76.6%23.4%
Rhode Island
100%
Vermont
25.6%74.4%
Washington
75.8%24.2%
Nunavut
11.7%88.3%
Maine
46.2%53.8%
North Dakota
100%
Nova Scotia
100%
Virginia
100%
Delaware
100%
Prince Edward Island
69.9%30.1%
Mississippi
1.68%98.3%
Nebraska
86.0%14.0%
Hawaii
100%
North Carolina
0.757%99.2%
Oregon
84.6%15.4%
New Brunswick
28.8%71.2%
Wisconsin
100%
Newfoundland and Labrador
62.6%37.4%
New Jersey
100%
South Carolina
0.446%99.6%
Connecticut
100%
Nevada
59.2%40.8%
Massachusetts
0.220%99.8%
Georgia
10.5%89.5%
New York
44.6%55.4%
Maryland
100%
Québec
3.13%86.6%10.3%
Tennessee
100%
South Dakota
18.5%81.5%
Minnesota
100%
Iowa
9.22%90.8%
Alaska
0.667%69.6%29.7%3
Arizona
100%1
Wyoming
98.2%1.78%5
Montana
29.3%70.7%2
Kentucky
100%5
Saskatchewan
100%6
West Virginia
100%2
Texas
0.700%99.3%26
Missouri
99.3%0.692%1
Louisiana
22.6%77.4%6
Alabama
0.226%99.8%3
New Mexico
100%2
Kansas
100%3
British Columbia
8.35%91.6%2
Michigan
100%4
Alberta
100%9
Pennsylvania
99.6%0.379%3
Colorado
100%3
Manitoba
100%1
Oklahoma
100%5
Ontario
100%1
California
100%4
Arkansas
100%2
Ohio
86.8%13.2%1
Indiana
78.8%21.2%1
Illinois
57.7%42.3%2
0.16.0