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Global Surface Warming: Worst-Case Projections (IPCC)

WorldPhysical Environment

Projection of surface temperatures for the 2081–2100 period using the RCP8.5 model, which integrates change in annual mean surface temperature, change in annual mean precipitation, in percentages, and change in average sea level relative to the 1986–2005 period. RCP8.5 represents future change in atmospheric temperature if there is no reduction in cumulative greenhouse gas emissions between 2010 and 2100.

UN IPCC

A map shows global surface warming worst-case projections in degrees Celsius. Extensive warming is depicted in the Arctic and northern hemisphere regions. Moderate warming covers the equatorial and southern regions.

Warming of up to 3 degrees Celsius (light to medium peach) will occur over most of Earth’s oceans, except in the central and north Pacific, along the continental shelves, in the Mediterranean Sea, and the ocean around Antarctica, where it will warm even more between 3 and 5 degrees (peach to light red). Extreme warming from 5 to 7.5 degrees (red to dark red) and higher will occur over the Arctic Ocean. On the continents, warming of between 3 and 4 degrees (light red) will occur in the interior of these landmasses, with more intense warming, of 4 to 5 degrees (medium red), occurring in the midlatitudes of interior North America and Eurasia, the western Sahara, the Arabian Peninsula, and southwestern Asia. The most warming over land, ranging from about 5 to 7.5 degrees (dark to very dark red), will occur in northeastern Canada from around Hudson Bay northward, and across Eurasia from northern Scandinavia across Russia to far eastern Siberia and the Pacific. Warming of up to 1.5 degrees (light peach) will occur in the Southern Antarctic Circle below New Zealand, some areas in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and a small region in the North Atlantic Ocean below Iceland.

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Global Surface Warming: Worst-Case Projections (IPCC)

Ecological Regions: Level 2 Labels

2.0 to 3.0

3.0 to 4.0

4.0 to 5.0

5.0 to 7.0

7.0 to 9.0

9.0 to 11.0

ALASKA BOREAL INTERIOR

ALASKA TUNDRA

ARCTIC CORDILLERA

ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS

BOREAL CORDILLERA

BOREAL PLAIN

BROOKS RANGE TUNDRA

CENTRAL USA PLAINS

COLD DESERTS

EVERGLADES

HUDSON PLAIN

MARINE WEST COAST FOREST

MEDITERRANEAN CALIFORNIA

MISSISSIPPI ALLUVIAL AND SOUTHEAST USA COASTAL PLAINS

MIXED WOOD PLAINS

MIXED WOOD SHIELD

NORTHERN ARCTIC

OZARK/OUACHITA-APPALACHIAN FORESTS

SOFTWOOD SHIELD

SOUTH CENTRAL SEMIARID PRAIRIES

SOUTHEASTERN USA PLAINS

SOUTHERN ARCTIC

TAIGA CORDILLERA

TAIGA PLAIN

TAIGA SHIELD

TEMPERATE PRAIRIES

TEXAS-LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAIN

UPPER GILA MOUNTAINS

WARM DESERTS

WEST-CENTRAL SEMIARID PRAIRIES

WESTERN CORDILLERA

WESTERN SIERRA MADRE PIEDMONT

District of Columbia
100%
Idaho
100%
New Hampshire
100%
Vermont
100%
Kentucky
97.3%2.66%
Virginia
100%
Missouri
13.6%86.4%
Louisiana
22.6%77.4%
Hawaii
4.46%95.5%
Kansas
100%
South Carolina
0.446%99.6%
Connecticut
100%
Georgia
10.5%89.5%
Maryland
97.8%2.21%
Manitoba
84.3%15.7%
Oklahoma
62.1%37.9%
Tennessee
100%
Ohio
11.8%88.2%
Alaska
6.12%51.8%41.5%0.619%281516
Arizona
54.1%45.9%211
Utah
100%11
Yukon
0.183%84.6%15.2%1
Northwest Territories
42.5%40.6%16.9%3111
Florida
80.2%19.8%11
Rhode Island
100%1
Washington
0.721%92.9%6.36%12
Wyoming
100%11
Nunavut
0.715%79.8%19.5%8204
Montana
100%13
Maine
1.11%98.9%1
North Dakota
100%1
Nova Scotia
2.28%97.7%2
Delaware
100%1
Prince Edward Island
100%1
Saskatchewan
100%1
Mississippi
1.68%98.3%1
West Virginia
92.6%7.41%1
Nebraska
100%1
Texas
0.717%88.6%10.7%211
North Carolina
0.811%99.2%11
Oregon
12.9%72.2%14.9%1
New Brunswick
100%1
Alabama
0.226%99.8%1
New Mexico
10.1%89.9%4
Wisconsin
100%1
British Columbia
1.02%33.9%65.1%1111
Newfoundland and Labrador
24.5%75.5%1
New Jersey
74.2%25.8%1
Michigan
100%111
Alberta
100%11
Pennsylvania
12.1%87.9%1
Colorado
100%1
Nevada
36.6%63.4%1
Massachusetts
0.220%9.11%90.7%1
New York
2.91%97.1%21
Québec
74.3%25.7%111211
Ontario
88.8%11.2%111
California
29.5%70.5%211
Arkansas
100%11
South Dakota
100%1
Indiana
3.46%96.5%1
Minnesota
100%1
Iowa
100%1
Illinois
4.57%95.4%1
0.16.0